One carton, one origin, nine destinations, all quoted on 2026-07-28. UPS Ground came back at a single business day into Philadelphia and Boston and at seven to eight into Portland, and every dollar figure below is what a customer actually pays for that speed. The paid tiers came back on the short lanes and vanished on the long ones, which is the opposite of where anybody wants them.
The same box went to nine cities and the estimate stretched from one business day to eight. Nothing about the parcel changed.
We put a 16 by 12 by 10 in carton at 10 lb through the SMKlog checkout from Newark, NJ 07102 to nine cities spread from an hour down the turnpike to the Pacific Northwest, and recorded whatever UPS services came back. Every cell below is a bookable offer captured at the same moment, not a schedule copied out of a brochure.
| Destination | UPS Ground Saver | UPS Ground | UPS 3 Day Select | UPS 2nd Day Air |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia, PA 19103 | $14.61 3 days estimated, no window | $15.56 1 business day | $19.65 1 business day | $21.95 1 business day |
| Boston, MA 02108 | $15.59 3 days estimated, no window | $15.98 1 business day | $20.69 2-3 business days | not returned |
| Richmond, VA 23219 | $15.59 4 days estimated, no window | $15.98 2-3 business days | $20.69 2-3 business days | $24.16 2-3 business days |
| Cleveland, OH 44113 | $16.43 4 days estimated, no window | $17.36 2-3 business days | $21.39 2-3 business days | not returned |
| Nashville, TN 37201 | $17.56 4 days estimated, no window | $21.94 2-3 business days | $27.66 2-3 business days | not returned |
| Kansas City, MO 64106 | $20.51 5 days estimated, no window | $23.86 5-6 business days | not returned | not returned |
| Denver, CO 80202 | $22.91 5 days estimated, no window | $27.01 6-7 business days | not returned | not returned |
| Phoenix, AZ 85004 | $25.51 5 days estimated, no window | $29.03 6-7 business days | not returned | not returned |
| Portland, OR 97204 | $25.51 6 days estimated, no window | $29.03 7-8 business days | not returned | not returned |
Phoenix and Portland priced identically on both ground tiers, and Portland still carried an extra business day. Price bands and transit bands are drawn on different maps, so a further destination is not automatically a dearer one.
A single business day covers the Northeast corridor as far as Boston. The mid-Atlantic and the near Midwest sit at two to three. The Missouri river is worth five to six, the Rockies six to seven, and the Pacific Northwest seven to eight.
On the five lanes where 3 Day Select or 2nd Day Air came back alongside Ground, four returned the identical window Ground had already returned. Into Philadelphia all three tiers said one business day, with over six dollars between the cheapest and the dearest. Into Boston the paid tier came back slower than the Ground line it was sitting above.
Past Nashville, nothing above Ground came back at all. The four western destinations, the only ones where an air tier would genuinely change the arrival date, are the four with no air row to buy.
Treat the Ground Saver column with more suspicion than the rest. Those cells arrived as a bare day count with no window attached, and on three of the four western destinations the count came in below Ground's, which is not how the two services are ordered in practice. Read it as a rough estimate rather than a commitment, and see Ground against Ground Saver for what separates them.
UPS describes its ground product as taking one to five business days, on its domestic services page at ups.com/us/en/support/shipping-support/shipping-services/domestic, read 2026-07-28. That description held for five of our nine destinations and did not hold for the other four.
| Inside one to five business days | Past five business days |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia at 1, Boston at 1, Richmond at 2-3, Cleveland at 2-3, Nashville at 2-3 | Kansas City at 5-6, Denver at 6-7, Phoenix at 6-7, Portland at 7-8 |
A published range is a description of the network, not a promise about your parcel, and from a New Jersey origin the range runs out somewhere around the Mississippi. If a date has to hold, take the estimate the quote gives for your own two ZIP codes rather than the sentence on the carrier's marketing page.
Saturdays, Sundays and UPS closure dates fall outside the count. A five to six day window bought on a Wednesday is pointing at the middle of the following week, not at the weekend. Our closure calendar lists the dates that stretch it further.
Printing a label does not start anything. The first business day is the one on which UPS takes physical possession, which is why a late afternoon handover and a next-morning handover can produce the same arrival date.
The tables here answer which day. Which hour of that day is a separate question, and the answer differs for a house and for a loading dock; that is covered on what time UPS delivers.
Seven to eight business days on the Newark to Portland quote taken 2026-07-28, against one business day into Philadelphia with the identical carton. Distance sets the number and the contents of the box have nothing to do with it.
Yes. Weekends and UPS holiday closures sit outside the count, so a two to three day window bought on a Thursday points at the following Monday or Tuesday rather than at the weekend.
Not on any lane in this capture. On four of the five lanes where both came back, 3 Day Select returned the same window Ground had already returned, for four to six dollars more. On the fifth, Boston, Ground was quoted at one business day and 3 Day Select at two to three, so the upgrade was the slower line.
One to five business days, on the UPS domestic services page at ups.com, read 2026-07-28. Four of our nine destinations came back with an estimate whose slow end lands past that.
The overnight tiers did not come back in any of these nine quotes, so there is nothing honest to put in the cells. An empty column beats a figure nobody actually quoted.